North Korea claims that the new construction is aimed at building a facility to launch a satellite. But I think it is made for developing a long-ranged missile. It’s argument smells of hypocrisy. We should act now!
A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Tim Brown.
Summary
Recent commercial satellite imagery shows new construction at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station (“Tongchang-ri”), specifically at the site used to launch the Unha space launch vehicle (SLV), most recently in 2012. While the upgrading of the gantry to support a space launch vehicle larger than the Unha was essentially completed by late 2014, Pyongyang has been further modifying the launch area to include a new support building at the east end of the pad as well as a platform that appears to move along rails from that building to the launch tower.
While the exact purpose of this building remains unclear, one possibility is that the North Koreans are building a complex similar to facilities observed in China, such as at the Jiuquan Launch Center, that include buildings where the launch vehicle is assembled, processed, and checked, then placed on a movable platform and rolled to the launch tower. As work moves to completion, a more definitive conclusion will be possible.[1][2]
If the construction is of a new complex, then it raises questions about recent unconfirmed press reports speculating that North Korea could launch a long-range rocket on the 70th anniversary of Korean Workers Party in October 2015. It would appear difficult although not impossible for the construction to be completed in time to prepare for such a launch. However, ongoing work should not preclude an October launch if North Korea were to interrupt construction and conduct those preparations using existing missile assembly and other facilities.
The Sohae facility upgrade program represents a significant investment of financial, material and personnel resources and is another indicator, along with its public statements, that the North is determined to pursue its space program. Moreover, work at the Sohae launch pad points to the fielding of a future SLV larger than the current Unha rocket. A new larger SLV may further contribute to the North’s development of long-range ballistic missiles and provide another sign of Pyongyang’s serious commitment to its space program.
New Construction at the Sohae Launch Pad Progressing
Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that construction activity begun in September 2014 is progressing at the Sohae launch pad. While the upgrading of the gantry to support a space launch vehicle (SLV) larger than the Unha was essentially completed in late 2014, Pyongyang has been further modifying the launch area to include a new support building on the east end of the pad. A comparison of satellite imagery taken on March 30, April 29 and May 16, 2015 indicates continued progress.
Figure 1. Construction activity at the launch support building and the rail terminus.
Note: images rotated. Images © 2015 DigitalGlobe, Inc. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
http://38north.org/2015/05/sohae052815/
댓글 없음:
댓글 쓰기